Peak oil falsified?

Graeme called $200 / barrel at $145. It’s now $40.

Worst call ever?


42 Responses to “Peak oil falsified?”

  1. Jason Soon Says:

    ranks up there with Homer’s theory of the origins of skanky ho

  2. anti-bird Says:


    You bought oil at 145 bucks a barrel. Where did you puke the position? Please don’t tell us you ran oil for a 75% loss. You idiot, Birdie.

  3. graemebird Says:

    Decadal peak oil is proven. Since peak oil was about daily production. This is the easiest case to see that I was right and you idiots were wrong.

    I suspect that we could beat our daily output but not without an whole new generation of capital goods.

  4. graemebird Says:

    Carbon tax would ruin our ability to develop that new generation of capital goods. Plus the whole idea of it is based on compromise with leftist lying.

  5. Tillman Says:

    But Graeme why do we want to encourage development of capital goods at incorrect prices?

    Doesn’t a carbon tax just internalise preexisting costs?

  6. Tillman Says:

    And isn’t it funny to see the naive Bird fooled by a bunch of speculators.

    Graeme thought $145 oil reflected fundamentals when it was really just a bunch of dudes playing the market.

    You got played, Bird.

    Hope you didn’t use all of your copper wire as collateral for your foolish punt on oil.

  7. Mark Hill Says:


    New super reserves have been found (Gulf of Mexico, Nebraska, Brazil). The price has dropped (due to demand falling). When demand picks up again, production will increase and it could exceed 2005 levels. The indsutry will adjust to bring down marginal costs and increase margins. The price will fall again and we will permamently be producing more than 2005 levels.

    It is also important you realise the futures market is not the “oil market” – it is a market for risk sharing for oil producers and buyers. $147 doesn’t reflect a problem getting it out of the ground – $70/bbl did that already. $147/bbl means people think Israel was going to put Iran out of commission and perhaps with a lot of collateral damage.

  8. graemebird Says:

    So what is your argument. We won’t beat the current daily production anytime soon unless we developed a whole new generation of very deep drilling capital equipment. So thats decadal peak oil right there.

    Are you displaying your mental handicap where you show time after time that you cannot grasp what peak oil is?

    Is that what you are going to do again Mark?

    Show that mental handicap?


    Is that it?

  9. graemebird Says:

    Production will not increase, and the price did not increase because of production increases.

    The price dropped from business-to-business spending collapse alone.

    Production is not going to increase Mark. Such an eventuality awaits a whole new era of capital equipment. And we won’t get there under carbon tax stupidity.

  10. graemebird Says:

    “Tillman Says:
    February 25, 2009 at 10:55 pm
    But Graeme why do we want to encourage development of capital goods at incorrect prices?

    Doesn’t a carbon tax just internalise preexisting costs?”

    What costs would those be Tillman?

    Bearing in mind that lies don’t count?

  11. graemebird Says:

    Really truly. I never met people as stupid as you guys as a kid. We have seen you people mentally incapable of keeping within your tiny minds an understanding of what the peak oil model is.

    Outsiders may not understand this. But literally 20 or 30 or 50 times the idiots gainsaying me on this matter have failed to understand that peak oil is a model to do with daily output from traditional oilwells.

    So many times we’ve gone over it. And yet these Gooks, bootniggers, and hard-core Anglo taxeater spawn cannot lock in the idea that peak oil is about daily output and its not about:

    1. Synthetics

    2. Price

    3. The amount of oil still in the ground.

    4. The collected thoughts of Chairman Peter Garret…..

    Or anything else. So we are really dealing with pre-Aristotlean pre-Christian savages here. People whom time and logic forgot.

  12. Mark Hill Says:


    When 2005 daily production targets are broken, will your head explode ala Chapelle?

  13. The Hon. Mr Justice Tillman AO QC BNC Says:

    from traditional oilwells

    huh? So oilsands don’t count? That’s fucking stupid.

  14. Mark Hill Says:


    You always crap on about liquified coal.

    LINC energy may be producing 20000 bbl/day of ultra clean diesel by the latter half of this year.

    They are an innovative company, and pioneers. They will not be the first company to do this. They have a lot of room to expand and grow.

    What in the hell are you worried about? With far less education and prmitive engineering methods, as well as a far narrower resource base and far less powered well heads and drills, JD Rockerfeller’s standard oil pretty much made the whole sale price of kerosene fall by seven eights of the price when he formed his cartel.

    What are you actually worried about again?

  15. graemebird Says:

    They are going to be hampered by economics incompetents.

  16. Mark Hill Says:

    Gra Gra sez:

    1. You’re incompetent, you do not agree that the fossil fuel industry is in trouble.

    2. I can’t prove this.

    3. It is because you disagree with me.

    RIIIIGHT. Now children and third parties, we call this derangement “lunacy”.

  17. Mark Hill Says:


    How about I bet you 15000 AUD that by 28/02/2014, that 2005 daily production will be surpassed?

    I don’t have the capital to front this up, is anyone willing to be my guarantor?

  18. graemebird Says:

    Is that not including synthetics? If you were to be that you will lose. But I’m not accepting Annan-like distractions as a substitute for you admitting you are a dumb cunt without any argument whatsoever. I’d never get the money off you in any case.

  19. graemebird Says:

    Bets as a distraction for any argument whatsoever are a hateful trend. I’ve won this argument a long time ago.

    When we have a new generation of drilling technology we could beat this output and not before. And we won’t get that drilling technology with carbon taxes everywhere.

  20. graemebird Says:

    I had won an argument about a journalist once. I had won it entirely and no-one was even trying to dispute it. Then JohnZ came up with this idea of a bet. It was a stunningly successful distraction. But he didn’t come up with even a tiny bit of extra evidence. So this bets as a substitute for evidence is just a pox on blogsville.

  21. Mark Hill Says:

    Are completely fucking stupid Bird?

    Someone else goes guarantor (big pot) or holds the money in escrow (small pot).

    You are simply too chickenshit to back up what you say. We can’t take you seriously anymore.

  22. graemebird Says:

    No you are an idiot without any case whatsoever. And I’m not distracting from that fact with a bet. You cannot come up with 1500 anyhow so its all a bluff.

    Its taken you this long to even so much as talk about peak oil without getting confused about price and estimated reserves.

    This is Annan’s doing. He never had the evidence so he distracted people with bets.

  23. Mark Hill Says:

    I gave you a choice Bird – $15k in five years (guaranteed) or $900 (held in escrow so $1800 all up) that is up for grabs anytime after March until March 2014.

    Stop being a wimp. Stop being a liar.

    “He never had the evidence so he distracted people with bets.”

    Actually you deadshit Ehrlich and Julian Simon had a similar bet.

  24. graemebird Says:

    I’m giving you a choice. Come up with evidence or argument or admit you are wrong. This idea that you can get in the way of synthetics in the hope that oil production will automatically pick up is moronic.

  25. graemebird Says:

    Its not only moronic its flat out treasonous behaviour. Both oil production and synthetics will be devastated by a carbon tax.

  26. Jason Soon Says:





  27. jc Says:


    Sorry, but you have lost the peak oil argument too.

  28. Mark Hill Says:

    Graeme you deadshit – I am not for mitigation. I simply know John’s proposal is simply a better tax system than what we have know. I am pro nuclear, anti mitigation and believe in the abiotic (and biotic) theory as well.

    Which is kind of strange since you know how Rockefeller with his primitive technology increased output and lowered prices – and that we have abiotiic oil and newly found superfields, why did you buy into such deep green bullshit like peak oil?

    I blame your lack of a formal university eduction.

    Man up Tink. I will send $900 to Jason, Andrew or Z after Uncle Kevin sends it out. Will you?

    I would be quite happy to lose this bet, if our totally backwards social democrat Government woke up, finally followed their much fawned upon Nordic dreamboats and actually allowed nuke and uranium exports. We would have cheap energy and a major emitter like China would have cut back on emissions to the point where we could actually make some decent ground in terms of mitigation.

  29. Mark Hill Says:


    When are you going to grow some hair on your peaches?

    I will wire one of the banking cartelists my Rudd money when it becomes available. Will you take up this fantastic offer?

    If you’re right, it’s easy money. If you’re wrong, you’ll squib quicker than a starter’s pistol.

    Peak oil is a ludicrous, horseshit theory invented by the deep green and economically illiterate left and fringe rightists.

  30. Mark Hill Says:


    Stop distracting us with the carbon tax and fractional reserve threads and man up you squib.

  31. Mark Hill Says:


    I consider this a slight on your perceived manliness.

    Take the bet or start wearing a Pinafore and dress.

  32. graemebird Says:

    No we are not going to encourage these James Annan distractions. You do not have a case in the first place. After 4 years this is the first time you’ve framed this in terms of daily supply. So its better that you just learn the theory.

    The 2005 daily output CANNOT be substantially beaten without a whole new generation of deeper drilling technology. I say this despite believing that abiotic theory means there is even more down there then any of you suppose. But you listing off reams of new oilwells cannot change that. None of them, except perhaps the Brazillian one is a super duper big one like the North Sea find, and pretty much all the old ones are in terminal decline.

    But we can produce 200 million barells of synthetics a day. Or rather we can grow the daily output of synthetics 20% per year indefinitely. If only we can get the tax exemptions we need, destroy this environmentalist movement, and institute sound property rights.

  33. Mark Hill Says:

    Then put your $900 thanks to Uncle Kevin’s “largesse” on the line. Man up.

  34. Siegfried & Roy Says:

    Mr Bird

    This blog is so STIMULATING!!

    Please come see the show if you are ever in Vegas.

  35. Siegfried & Roy Says:

    I forgot to mention that Roy got eaten by a tiger.

    But please come by and say hello. We would love to have you around for a quick bite! LOL 😉

  36. Elton John Says:

    you like to eat crow, sigfried?

  37. Siegfried & Roy Says:

    cheeky boy!!! Let me give you a spanking.

  38. Elton John Says:

    Graeme’s the one into spankings, siggy

  39. Siegfried & Roy Says:


  40. Elton John Says:

    But he doesn’t do animals (other than sheep)

  41. Oscar Wilde Says:

    I do not find this even slightly amusing.

  42. Elton John Says:

    Are you in Earnest, Mr Wilde?

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